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Size of Population in India
India's population at the turn of the twentieth century was about 238.4 million, which increased more than fourfold to 1210 million in 2011.
Where does India stand today globally?
i) Area: 7th largest globally.
ii) Population: 2nd largest.
iii) Labour force: 2nd largest.
iv) GDP (nominal): 10th largest.
v) GDP (PPP): 4th largest.
vi) GDP (nominal) per capita: 138th.
vii) GDP (PPP) per capita: 127th.
viii) GDP (real) growth rate: 5th.
ix) Human Development Index: 134th.
India ranks high in population and GDP size but low in per capita income and human development, indicating high poverty and poor quality of human resources.
Growth Rate of Population
Compound annual growth rate of population
i) 1891-1921: 0.19%
ii) 1921-1951: 1.22%
iii) 1951-1981: 2.15%
iv) 1981-1991: 2.11%
v) 1991-2001: 1.93%
vi) 2001-2011: 1.64%
Population growth accelerated after 1951, peaking around 1981, and slowed down thereafter.
Life Expectancy
Life expectancy at birth is a key health indicator. It was 63.4 years in 2007, with females living longer than males. For 2011-2015, projected life expectancy was 69.6 years for females and 67.3 years for males.
Infant Mortality Rate
At the start of the twentieth century, infant mortality rate was 204 per 1000 live births. It has fallen significantly to 64 per 1000 (44 urban, 70 rural). Under-five mortality dropped from 236 in 1960 to 85 recently.
Density of Population
Population density measures pressure on land. As per 2011 census, density was 324 persons per sq. km, projected to rise to 426 by 2026. India is already densely populated, intensifying land pressure.
Age Composition
Age-sex composition depends on fertility and mortality trends. With declining birth rates:
i) Dependency ratio is expected to decrease (two active persons per dependent).
ii) Working population proportion will increase.
iii) Labour force growth projected faster than overall population growth.
Sex Composition
Sex ratio, a measure of social health, is the number of females per 1000 males. India’s ratio was 940 in 2011, historically low and unfavorable to females.
Six explanations for declining sex ratio include:
i) Progressive undercount of women in censuses.
ii) Female discrimination in nutrition and healthcare.
iii) Male selective migration.
iv) Reduction in foetal wastage affecting birth ratios.
v) Female selective termination of pregnancy.
vi) Small sex differences in mortality at young ages persisting over time.
Rural-Urban Distribution
Urban population percentage increased from 17.1% in 1951 to 32% in 2011, reflecting migration due to better urban job opportunities.
State of Literacy
Literacy, vital for development, increased to 74.04% in 2011. Male literacy was 82.14% and female literacy 65.46%.
India has a large population base and is already densely populated, with projections indicating further population increase in the future.
The population growth rate since the 1950s has been consistently high due to:
i) Persistence of high fertility.
ii) Declining mortality rates.
Recently, the death rate has plateaued, and the birth rate in over a dozen states has reached replacement level. Population growth currently arises from the birth-death rate differential in the remaining states.
Long-term high birth and death rates have created a bottom-heavy age pyramid resulting in a high dependency ratio in the economy.
The age composition is becoming more favourable, with a rising proportion of the population in the working-age group.
There is a trend of rising masculinity, with the proportion of women in the total population gradually falling.
The rural sector dominates the economy, indicating overall low productivity.
About one-third of the population is illiterate, reflecting the poor quality of human capital in the country.
The major causes of fast population growth over the last five decades are classified into two groups:
A. Causes responsible for persistence of high fertility indicated by high birth rates.
B. Causes responsible for declining mortality indicated by falling death rates.
Marriage as a Universal Phenomenon in India: Historically, Indian women marry early, and very few remain spinsters beyond reproductive age (50 years).
Important facts:
About 47% of total female population are in childbearing age (15–49 years).
In 1961, 84.53% of women aged 15–49 were married; currently it is about 81%.
The average female marriage age was 15.6 years in 1951 and 1961, rising marginally to 18.3 years in 2008.
Summary:
Large number of women in reproductive age;
Large number of married women in reproductive age;
Very low average age of marriage.
These factors contribute to high fertility rates and prevailing high birth rates.
Studies show marital fertility rate among young married women (< 30 years) not using contraceptives rose steadily from 1951 to 1991.
Reasons for rise in natural fertility include:
Improved biological fecundity due to better nutrition and health;
Relaxation of traditional cultural fertility checks, such as sexual abstinence;
Reduction in breastfeeding duration due to urban values promoting bottle feeding.
This early phase of modernization leads to rising natural fertility, which must be quickly replaced by widespread contraceptive use to lower fertility.
By 2001, the total fertility rate reversed and declined to an estimated 3.2, currently around 2.8, indicating a transition towards moderate to low fertility.
India's death rate has approached that of developed countries (world average in 2000: 9 per 1000).
Reasons for declining mortality:
Advances in disease control and medicine have drastically reduced deadly diseases like plague, smallpox, and typhoid.
Increased awareness and facilities for sanitation, cleanliness, maternity and postnatal care, along with education, have reduced infant mortality.
Food shortages and famines are largely a thing of the past due to better administration and transport networks.
In summary, any improvement in material well-being reduces mortality.
Faster population growth is a handicap, like extra weight carried by a racehorse. The following discussion outlines various problems caused by population growth in India.
R.H. Cassen highlights two main relationships through which population growth affects the economy:
Savings effect: Savings are reduced because population growth increases the ‘burden of dependency’. With high fertility and declining mortality in younger and older age groups, a larger proportion of the population is in non-working age groups relative to working age. This causes consumption per head to rise and savings per head to fall—even if productivity rises.
Composition of investment effect: Increasing population requires investment in ‘unproductive’ facilities (social overhead capital) to support additional people. This shifts investment away from raising productivity of the existing labor force, resulting in “demographic investment” rather than real productive investment.
Coale and Hoover identified three demographic forces adversely impacting development:
i) Size of population,
ii) Growth rate, and
iii) Age structure.
The impact of these forces on the economy includes:
Capital shallowing effect: Rapid population growth causes a fall in the capital-to-labor ratio.
Age-dependency effect: A rising young population worsens the dependency ratio, eroding household savings.
Investment diversion effect: Government spends more on social sectors rather than productive, growth-oriented investments.
The argument suggests that fertility declines promote growth by reducing dependency ratios.
Empirical evidence shows an inverse relationship between the number of children and the ‘resource intensity per child’, indicating a trade-off: more children often means lower average quality per child, as perceived and desired by parents.
India’s health advancements have primarily focused on death-control strategies—reducing death rates and improving survival—rather than investing adequately in health, nutrition, and human resource development (HRD).
This has created a critical gap between mere survival and achieving optimal health and nutrition. Without sufficient HRD investment, this gap remains unbridged.
India is currently in a dangerous twilight phase of development where many poor, who would not have survived without modern health technologies, now live with substandard health, poor nutrition, and low educational attainment.
This growing pool of substandard survivors is not only eroding the overall quality of human resources but is also most resistant to family-planning programs due to poverty, illiteracy, and underdevelopment.
Unchecked population growth creates a vicious cycle: rural-to-urban migration leads to unplanned urbanisation, and rising numbers of unemployed youth increase the risk of anti-social behavior.
This demographic segment often perpetuates the cycle of poverty and overpopulation by continuing to have more children.
As Paul EhrlichPopulation Bomb: “You are poor because you are too many.”
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